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Plug In Posturing

Tesla MotorsIt’s comforting to know that Silicon Valley is putting their money where their mouth is when it comes to clean energy. Cleantech is becoming all the rage these days. That’s a very good thing in my opinion.

Unfortunately, when anything becomes all the rage it also becomes susceptible to hype and bubbles. I don’t think we have a clean energy bubble yet (we’re not even close to that) but the hype meter is starting to tick up a bit.

The Silicon Valley company called Tesla Motors plans to build a fully electric sports car known as the Tesla Roadster. Tesla Motors has no track record as an auto company. The Roadster been beset by technical problems (specifically with the transmission) and recently went through a reshuffling of the top executives.

To date Tesla Motors has delivered exactly one of their Roadster’s to their CEO Elon Musk. Production models should be coming sometime later this year (maybe?) and even then it is likely that those vehicles will need a transmission replacement within two years.

From the outside looking in it seems to me that Tesla Motors is treading on dangerous ground. They have promised a revolutionary product and even taken deposits to the tune of millions of dollars. Tesla Motors on very dangerous ground in my opinion.

Companies that try to change the paradigm in any industry face an uphill battle. Trying to change the paradigm in the auto industry is an especially risky venture. And if Tesla Motors fails to deliver this vehicle, the repercussions will affect more than just the people who invested $100,000 in a deposit.

Every new, high profile clean energy company that fails will push further scrutiny on other companies in the industry. And the more that this happens the tougher it will be for the companies working on strong ideas to find investors and customers. If Tesla Motors fails then people will say, “Oh, those electric cars can’t work.”

Failure is not something written in stone with respect to the team at Tesla Motors. I believe that they can succeed if they focus on getting the Roadster to market. Unfortunately they already seem to be losing that focus. A news item appeared this week indicating that Tesla is already looking forward to their next line of vehicles.

Tesla Motors is planning to build a gas-electric plug in hybrid. I was a bit taken aback when I saw the news. After all, these folks haven’t demonstrated the ability to mass produce their flagship vehicle. How can they expect to launch a second line when they haven’t gotten the first line right yet?

According to the news item, “The San Carlos, Calif.-based company will produce two basic types of its Whitestar sedan, due toward the end of 2009. One will run completely on batteries. The other will be a range-extended vehicle, or REV, CEO Ze’ev Drori said in an interview. In an REV, a small gas motor recharges the battery pack while the car is being driven.”

I’m inclined to think that this attempt at expanding the product line is one that is meant to entice investors into providing Tesla Motors with a capital infusion. A plug-in hybrid sounds like a much more practical solution. But such a vehicle in a luxury sedan design is a challenge even for major auto companies.

While I would love to see Tesla Motors succeed and revolutionize the industry, they could do more harm than good if they fail to produce a deliverable product that works. Its one thing to undertake an effort like this with private capital. Its another when you fund R&D with deposits from customers.

Now is not the time for speculation about future product lines. Now is the time for Tesla Motors to be very quiet and get down to business perfecting the electric sports car that they’ve been promising the world for eighteen months.

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